Business challenge
Central-case forecasts can hide downside exposure and make it hard to compare dispatch or storage assumptions.
In Practice / Forecasting and risk
Forecasting and downside-risk analysis
Allowing forecast assumptions, scenario ranges and downside cases to be compared before decisions are made.
Scenario analysis - downside risk
GridRisk demonstrator output
This example uses the GridRisk demonstrator to show how uncertainty-aware forecasting and downside-risk analysis can support operational and commercial decisions. It is a prototype rather than a client deployment. Explore the GridRisk demonstrator
Why the existing process was difficult
Renewable energy and storage planning settings where generation, prices, curtailment and dispatch choices are uncertain.
Data and constraints
Representative renewable generation, price scenarios, forecast horizons, storage assumptions and risk-preference inputs. Prototype only. Not live grid-control software, not trading software and not production dispatch automation.
What SSS Techs built
Use quantile-style forecasting, rolling calibration checks, scenario comparison, CVaR-style diagnostics and storage optionality analysis.
Validation and quality controls
Compare forecast intervals, downside cases and scenario outputs against baselines and sensitivity tests before any operational use.
What the demonstrator shows
Demonstrates how downside risk, dispatch assumptions and storage trade-offs can be inspected before larger engineering decisions.
Relevant consulting route
Need a similar analytical workflow for your organisation?
We can help scope the data, validation, modelling and reporting work needed to support the decision.